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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VVV Venlo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Almere City FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VVV Venlo beat Almere City FC 3-1 at Seacon - De Koel, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.68 xG and Almere City FC 1.78 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.88 / defence 1.02 against Almere City FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.16, drawn from 75/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 37% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 41%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual VVV Venlo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 61%, Almere City FC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — VVV Venlo 1.14 PPG, Almere City FC 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VVV Venlo win broke the near-deadlock. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Almere City FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights