🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant ADO Den Haag run riot with a 2-7 hammering of VVV Venlo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

ADO Den Haag beat VVV Venlo 2-7 at Covebo Stadion - De Koel -, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting VVV Venlo 1.15 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.37 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-7 for 9 actual goals. VVV Venlo beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. ADO Den Haag outscored their 1.37 projection by 5.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VVV Venlo attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.12 / defence 0.69, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it VVV Venlo 31% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 41%, with ADO Den Haag to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VVV Venlo 60%, ADO Den Haag 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

VVV Venlo's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

ADO Den Haag's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, ADO Den Haag arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. VVV Venlo (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights