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Prediction vindicated as Vitesse edge out Waalwijk 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat Waalwijk 2-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.47 xG and Waalwijk 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.85 / defence 1.03 against Waalwijk attack 0.90 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 40% | Draw 26% | Waalwijk 34%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 70%, Waalwijk 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.19 PPG, Waalwijk 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights