🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Vitesse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at GelreDome, Regular Season - 37, as Vitesse and MVV drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 2.37 xG and MVV 1.12 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitesse fell 2.4 short of their projected output. MVV landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 1.19 / defence 1.09 against MVV attack 0.69 / defence 1.24, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 65% | Draw 18% | MVV 17%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 68%, MVV 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

MVV's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.34 PPG, MVV 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights