Vitesse 0-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vitesse at 65% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs MVV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
MVV make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eerste Divisie (matchday 37). The match kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Vitesse (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Vitesse have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
MVV's record over their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, MVV have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Vitesse. A 1.30 PPG lead over MVV (2.00 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Vitesse, 1 for MVV and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2025, ended Vitesse 2–3 MVV — a MVV win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Vitesse — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
MVV — key trading statistics (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 61% versus MVV 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 68% | MVV 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 2.37 xG and MVV 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 1.189 / defence 1.090 | MVV attack 0.695 / defence 1.244. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.483. MVV's defence rating of 1.244 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vitesse's projected output up. MVV's attack rating of 0.695 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Vitesse's last 74 games and MVV's last 74.
Result probabilities: Vitesse 65% | Draw 18% | MVV 17%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 1.54 | Draw 5.42 | MVV 6.03. The model has a clear lean to Vitesse (65%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (2.37 / 1.12) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vitesse as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.49 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Vitesse's last 10 home games and MVV's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Vitesse 80% (last 10 home games) | MVV 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 37 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 17 April 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 65% | Draw 18% | MVV 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Vitesse 2.37 / MVV 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 1.189 / def 1.090 | MVV attack 0.695 / def 1.244 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.12
MVV xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vitesse vs MVV FAQs
What time does Vitesse vs MVV kick off?
Vitesse vs MVV kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 17 April 2026 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs MVV?
Vitesse 0 - 0 MVV.
Where is Vitesse vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs MVV part of?
Vitesse vs MVV is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 37) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 65% chance of winning, MVV a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Vitesse and MVV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Vitesse vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (1.19) and MVV's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.69x) against Vitesse's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Vitesse's last 74 games and MVV's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
65%
1.54
18%
5.42
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.49
1.12
MVV xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.42
18%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
9%
10.65
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
2%
64.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vitesse vs MVV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Vitesse and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.12 for MVV, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vitesse's recent record stands at 26W 21D 27L from 74 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-W in the last five.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 35L across 74 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-L-L-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Vitesse against 1.04 for MVV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 14W 10D 13L from their last 37 home games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 4W 11D 22L across their last 37 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of MVV's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vitesse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vitesse are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.26 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
Vitesse (Home) vs MVV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vitesse
Current Season
MVV
Current Season
❓ Vitesse vs MVV Form FAQs
What form are Vitesse and MVV in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 26W 21D 27L in their last 74 games (1.34 PPG), while MVV have gone 19W 20D 35L in their last 74 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or MVV away?
Vitesse's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.41 PPG; MVV away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Vitesse and MVV, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 17 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Vitesse
2
Draws
1
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Vitesse vs MVV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and MVV?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Vitesse have won 1, MVV have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and MVV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 April 2026: Vitesse 0-0 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 35% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 68%, MVV 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Vitesse and 51% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vitesse vs MVV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vitesse and MVV matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Vitesse's games and 43% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Vitesse and MVV matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Vitesse's matches and 51% of MVV's.
Do Vitesse and MVV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Vitesse's recent matches and 73% of MVV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vitesse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at GelreDome, Regular Season - 37, as Vitesse and MVV drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 2.37 xG and MVV 1.12 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vitesse fell 2.4 short of their projected output. MVV landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 1.19 / defence 1.09 against MVV attack 0.69 / defence 1.24, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 65% | Draw 18% | MVV 17%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 68%, MVV 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
MVV's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.34 PPG, MVV 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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