🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Vitesse cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong Utrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat Jong Utrecht 2-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 2.37 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.00 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong Utrecht landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 1.04 / defence 1.07 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.68 / defence 1.31, drawn from 43/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 68% | Draw 18% | Jong Utrecht 14%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 67%, Jong Utrecht 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Vitesse arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights