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Vitesse cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong AZ.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat Jong AZ 2-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.50 xG and Jong AZ 2.12 xG, a combined 3.61. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Jong AZ attack 1.45 / defence 0.96, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 27% | Draw 22% | Jong AZ 51%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Vitesse win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 68%, Jong AZ 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong AZ's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.21 PPG, Jong AZ 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights