🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Vitesse and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at GelreDome, Regular Season - 33, as Vitesse and Jong AZ drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.13 xG and Jong AZ 1.65 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.72 / defence 1.15 against Jong AZ attack 1.10 / defence 0.97, drawn from 32/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 26% | Draw 26% | Jong AZ 49%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 61%, Jong AZ 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Jong AZ's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Jong AZ arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights