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Dominant Vitesse run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat Jong Ajax 6-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.80 xG and Jong Ajax 1.31 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 4.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Jong Ajax attack 0.80 / defence 1.13, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 49% | Draw 23% | Jong Ajax 28%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 67%, Jong Ajax 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.29 PPG, Jong Ajax 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights