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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vitesse.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat Vitesse 0-3 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.15 xG and Dordrecht 2.03 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Dordrecht outscored their 2.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.77 / defence 1.53 against Dordrecht attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 20% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 57%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 64%, Dordrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dordrecht's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights