Vitesse 0-3 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dordrecht at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as Vitesse welcome Dordrecht to GelreDome. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitesse stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vitesse have posted 2W 4D 4L at GelreDome — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Dordrecht's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Vitesse's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vitesse have won 0, Dordrecht 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Vitesse in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 59% and Dordrecht 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 64% | Dordrecht 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.15 xG and Dordrecht 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.765 / defence 1.532 | Dordrecht attack 0.988 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.342. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Vitesse games / 60 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 20% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 57%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Dordrecht 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dordrecht as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 80% | Dordrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 20% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 60% | xG Vitesse 1.15 / Dordrecht 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.765 / def 1.532 | Dordrecht attack 0.988 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Dordrecht xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Dordrecht kick off?
Vitesse vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 January 2025 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Dordrecht?
Vitesse 0 - 3 Dordrecht.
Where is Vitesse vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Dordrecht part of?
Vitesse vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 20% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Vitesse and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Dordrecht?
Record (1 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Vitesse and Dordrecht in?
Vitesse (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.77x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
20%
4.95
23%
4.41
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Vitesse xG
Total xG
3.18
2.03
Dordrecht xG
4.95
20%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
13%
7.62
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
3%
37.69
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Vitesse and 2.03 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vitesse's recent record stands at 10W 13D 33L from 56 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 26W 20D 10L across 56 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dordrecht by 0.98 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitesse heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vitesse have managed 4W 10D 14L from 28 games — 0.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 10W 10D 8L across 28 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.27 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.82 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 10W 13D 33L in their last 56 games (0.77 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 26W 20D 10L in their last 56 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.79 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Vitesse or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vitesse have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and Dordrecht runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when Dordrecht won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Vitesse
2
Draws
2
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Dordrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 0, Dordrecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Vitesse 1-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vitesse at 68%, Dordrecht at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Vitesse) and 61% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Vitesse's games and 71% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Vitesse's matches and 61% of Dordrecht's.
Do Vitesse and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Vitesse 0-3 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.15 xG and Dordrecht 2.03 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Dordrecht outscored their 2.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.77 / defence 1.53 against Dordrecht attack 0.99 / defence 0.95, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 20% | Draw 23% | Dordrecht 57%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 64%, Dordrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dordrecht's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.