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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 18 as De Graafschap welcome FC Eindhoven to De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Guide
De Graafschap — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at De Vijverberg this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Eindhoven stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 8 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for De Graafschap, 3 for FC Eindhoven and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
De Graafschap trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 66% versus FC Eindhoven 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 62% | FC Eindhoven 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.12 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.126 / defence 1.071 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.863 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.462. Data: 54 De Graafschap games / 55 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 24%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | FC Eindhoven 4.17. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.47 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 80% | FC Eindhoven 20%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (8 meetings): De Graafschap 4W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 3W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: De Graafschap 12 – 8 FC Eindhoven • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: De Graafschap 50% / Draw 12% / FC Eindhoven 38% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 55% / draw 21% / away 24% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.47 (67% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 65% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L • FC Eindhoven (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W • De Graafschap home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • FC Eindhoven away split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | CS 5 • Form edge: De Graafschap lead by 1.00 PPG (1.80 vs 0.80) • xG vs form (De Graafschap): Poisson projects 2.12 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.80 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (FC Eindhoven): Poisson projects 1.35 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.47 (67% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 65% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on De Graafschap — De Graafschap at 55% Poisson win probability
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 55% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG De Graafschap 2.12 / FC Eindhoven 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.126 / def 1.071 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.863 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (55%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.35
FC Eindhoven xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
De Graafschap 2 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven part of?
De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 55% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven?
• Record (8 meetings): De Graafschap 4W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 3W • Goals trend: 2.50 goals/game | Total H2H goals: De Graafschap 12 – 8 FC Eindhoven • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: De Graafschap 50% / Draw 12% / FC Eindhoven 38% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 55% / draw 21% / away 24% • Goals: H2H average 2.50/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.47 (67% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 65% — no strong aligned signal
What form are De Graafschap and FC Eindhoven in?
• De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-L • FC Eindhoven (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-W • De Graafschap home split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | CS 1 • FC Eindhoven away split: 1.60 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | CS 5 • Form edge: De Graafschap lead by 1.00 PPG (1.80 vs 0.80) • xG vs form (De Graafschap): Poisson projects 2.12 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.80 — model rates them higher than raw form suggests, likely reflecting a strong defence-adjusted attack strength • xG vs form (FC Eindhoven): Poisson projects 1.35 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.00 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.1 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.47 (67% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~50% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 65% — no strong positional edge • Form vs Poisson alignment: form and model agree on De Graafschap — De Graafschap at 55% Poisson win probability
What do the betting odds say about De Graafschap vs FC Eindhoven?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture