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Vitesse cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vitesse beat De Graafschap 2-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.11 xG and De Graafschap 1.73 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.73 / defence 1.49 against De Graafschap attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 24% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 52%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 64%, De Graafschap 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

De Graafschap's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights