Vitesse 2-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 26 as Vitesse welcome De Graafschap to GelreDome. Kick-off is set for Sunday 16 February 2025 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse's home record at GelreDome: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Vitesse) versus 1.10 (De Graafschap). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vitesse register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Vitesse, 1 for De Graafschap and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 58% and De Graafschap 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 64% | De Graafschap 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.11 xG and De Graafschap 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.729 / defence 1.486 | De Graafschap attack 0.926 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.259. Vitesse's attack strength of 0.729 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Vitesse games / 63 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 24% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 52%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 4.17 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 1.92. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 60% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 24% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Vitesse 1.11 / De Graafschap 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.729 / def 1.486 | De Graafschap attack 0.926 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.73
De Graafschap xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs De Graafschap kick off?
Vitesse vs De Graafschap kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
Vitesse 2 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Vitesse vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs De Graafschap part of?
Vitesse vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 24% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Vitesse and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and De Graafschap?
Record (1 meetings): Vitesse 0W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Vitesse and De Graafschap in?
Vitesse (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
24%
4.14
24%
4.16
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.84
1.73
De Graafschap xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
4%
23.37
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Vitesse and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.73 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Vitesse have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 12W 13D 34L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 27W 13D 19L from 59 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.76 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitesse.
Venue Form
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 0.86 PPG from 29 outings (5W 10D 14L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 8W 9D 12L from 29 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Vitesse are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.81 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 12W 13D 34L in their last 59 games (0.83 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 27W 13D 19L in their last 59 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.86 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2026, when Vitesse won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Vitesse
0
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and De Graafschap?
From 4 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, De Graafschap have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when De Graafschap 1-4 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vitesse at 62%, De Graafschap at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Vitesse and 69% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Vitesse's games and 69% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Vitesse's matches and 69% of De Graafschap's.
Do Vitesse and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vitesse cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat De Graafschap 2-0 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.11 xG and De Graafschap 1.73 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Vitesse beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. De Graafschap landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.73 / defence 1.49 against De Graafschap attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 24% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 52%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 64%, De Graafschap 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Vitesse winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.