🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Vitesse.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Vitesse 1-3 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 2.04 xG and Almere City FC 1.56 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Vitesse fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Almere City FC outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.98 / defence 0.90 against Almere City FC attack 1.17 / defence 1.28, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Vitesse 48% | Draw 22% | Almere City FC 29%, with Vitesse to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 70%, Almere City FC 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Vitesse's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Almere City FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Vitesse 1.27 PPG, Almere City FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights