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Prediction vindicated as Telstar edge out Vitesse 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat Vitesse 1-0 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 3.25 xG and Vitesse 1.13 xG, a combined 4.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Telstar fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Vitesse landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.45 / defence 0.81 against Vitesse attack 1.09 / defence 1.36, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 78% | Draw 12% | Vitesse 9%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 58%, Vitesse 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Vitesse's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Telstar 1.26 PPG, Vitesse 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights