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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Telstar run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong Ajax.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Telstar beat Jong Ajax 3-0 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 2.13 xG and Jong Ajax 0.89 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Telstar beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 1.10 / defence 0.78 against Jong Ajax attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Telstar 66% | Draw 20% | Jong Ajax 14%, with Telstar to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 53%, Jong Ajax 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Telstar's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Telstar 1.07 PPG, Jong Ajax 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights