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Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out Roda 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat Roda 0-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.00 xG and Willem II 1.95 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Willem II landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.77 / defence 1.05 against Willem II attack 1.22 / defence 0.83, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 19% | Draw 22% | Willem II 60%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 58%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Willem II's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.39 PPG, Willem II 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward. Willem II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights