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Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Roda.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat Roda 1-4 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.59 xG and Waalwijk 0.97 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Waalwijk attack 0.78 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 52% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 23%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Waalwijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 55%, Waalwijk 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Waalwijk's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights