Roda vs Jong Utrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Roda (60%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Roda face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Jong Utrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 12 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 4W 5D 1L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Roda. A 0.80 PPG lead over Jong Utrecht (1.80 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Roda register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Jong Utrecht in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Roda, who have won 7 of the last 10 meetings against Jong Utrecht — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2026, ended 2–1 with Roda winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Roda and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 63% and Jong Utrecht 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 53% | Jong Utrecht 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.07 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.894 / defence 0.734 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.946 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.827 / away 1.580. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Roda's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Roda games / 51 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 60% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 19%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Jong Utrecht 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Roda (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Roda 70% | Jong Utrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 12 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 60% | Draw 21% | Jong Utrecht 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Roda 2.07 / Jong Utrecht 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.894 / def 0.734 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.946 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.827 / away 1.580 • Poisson stance: Roda (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Jong Utrecht xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Roda vs Jong Utrecht is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 12 February 2027 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Where is Roda vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Roda vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 60% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Roda and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
Record (10 meetings): Roda 7W | Draws 2 | Jong Utrecht 1W.
What form are Roda and Jong Utrecht in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Roda's attack rating (0.89) and Jong Utrecht's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.95x) against Roda's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.81
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Roda xG
Total xG
3.17
1.10
Jong Utrecht xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
13%
7.94
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
2%
40.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Roda and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Roda and 1.10 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda's recent record stands at 19W 19D 13L from 51 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 25L across 51 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Roda against 1.10 for Jong Utrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Roda have managed 7W 10D 8L from 25 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 5W 5D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 1.57 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Jong Utrecht in 69%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Jong Utrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 19W 19D 13L in their last 51 games (1.49 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 15W 11D 25L in their last 51 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Roda's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.24 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 19 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Roda
2
Draws
1
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 7, Jong Utrecht have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2026, when Jong Utrecht 1-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Jong Utrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 60%, Jong Utrecht 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Roda) and 60% (Jong Utrecht).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Roda's games and 64% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Roda's recent games and 60% of Jong Utrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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