🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat Roda 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat Roda 2-3 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.85 xG and Jong AZ 1.58 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 1.58 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Jong AZ attack 1.18 / defence 1.09, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 44% | Draw 23% | Jong AZ 33%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 55%, Jong AZ 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong AZ's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.38 PPG, Jong AZ 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights