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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Roda and Jong AZ share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda and Jong AZ finished level at 3-3 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.40 xG and Jong AZ 0.82 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong AZ outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.90 / defence 0.72 against Jong AZ attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 50% | Draw 29% | Jong AZ 21%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 52%, Jong AZ 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong AZ's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.69 PPG, Jong AZ 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights