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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Roda and Jong Ajax share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda and Jong Ajax finished level at 3-3 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.57 xG and Jong Ajax 0.90 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Ajax outscored their 0.90 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.80 / defence 0.77 against Jong Ajax attack 0.96 / defence 1.19, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 53% | Draw 25% | Jong Ajax 22%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 55%, Jong Ajax 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Jong Ajax's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.33 PPG, Jong Ajax 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights