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Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Roda 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC OSS beat Roda 1-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.51 xG and FC OSS 1.18 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC OSS outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.00 / defence 0.99 against FC OSS attack 0.78 / defence 0.87, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 44% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 29%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual FC OSS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 58%, FC OSS 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

FC OSS's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.40 PPG, FC OSS 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights