Roda 0-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 37%, yet in-form FC Eindhoven provide a compelling counter-argument — this Roda vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 29 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Roda (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Eindhoven are 1.00 PPG clear of Roda in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Roda 2W, FC Eindhoven 2W, 4D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2025, ended 0–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus FC Eindhoven 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | FC Eindhoven 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.17 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.885 / defence 0.856 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.023 / defence 0.786. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.269. FC Eindhoven's defence strength of 0.786 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Roda games / 41 FC Eindhoven games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Roda 37% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 34%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | FC Eindhoven 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Eindhoven (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Roda 50% | FC Eindhoven 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 37% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Roda 1.17 / FC Eindhoven 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.885 / def 0.856 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.023 / def 0.786 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Roda (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC Eindhoven xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Roda vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 August 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Roda 0 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Roda vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Roda vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 37% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Roda and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
Record (8 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 4 | FC Eindhoven 2W.
What form are Roda and FC Eindhoven in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Roda's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (0.79x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (1.02x) against Roda's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
37%
2.69
28%
3.51
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Roda xG
Total xG
2.28
1.11
FC Eindhoven xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.18
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Roda and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Roda and 1.11 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Roda come into this having played 41 games, going 15W 10D 16L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.46 PPG from 41 outings (17W 9D 15L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Roda against 1.46 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Roda's home form reads 10W 5D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.34 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.49 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 15W 10D 16L in their last 41 games (1.34 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 9D 15L in their last 41 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Roda's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.75 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Roda or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 22 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
5
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 40%, FC Eindhoven 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Roda) and 55% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; FC Eindhoven in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Roda's recent matches and 45% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Roda's recent games and 55% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Roda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda and FC Eindhoven finished level at 0-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.17 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.11 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Roda fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC Eindhoven landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.89 / defence 0.86 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.02 / defence 0.79, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Roda 37% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 34%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, FC Eindhoven 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.34 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.