Roda 0-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38. The match kicks off on Friday 9 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Roda (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Roda against 1.30 for FC Eindhoven. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Roda 2W, FC Eindhoven 1W, 4D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus FC Eindhoven 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 53% | FC Eindhoven 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.36 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.889 / defence 0.994 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.225 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.695 / away 1.250. FC Eindhoven have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 75 Roda games / 75 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 34% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 41%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | FC Eindhoven 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | FC Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 34% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Roda 1.36 / FC Eindhoven 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.889 / def 0.994 | FC Eindhoven attack 1.225 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.695 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.52
FC Eindhoven xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Roda vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 May 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Roda 0 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Roda vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Roda vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 34% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Roda and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
Record (7 meetings): Roda 2W | Draws 4 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Roda and FC Eindhoven in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Roda's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (1.23x) against Roda's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
34%
2.97
25%
3.92
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Roda xG
Total xG
2.88
1.52
FC Eindhoven xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
7%
13.60
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Roda and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Roda and 1.52 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Roda come into this having played 75 games, going 32W 22D 21L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.21 PPG from 75 outings (22W 25D 28L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Roda against 1.21 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Roda's home form reads 22W 9D 6L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.03 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.38 points per game from 37 outings (13W 12D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.36 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 32W 22D 21L in their last 75 games (1.57 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 22W 25D 28L in their last 75 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Roda's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.03 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 22 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
5
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 49%, FC Eindhoven 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Roda) and 57% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Roda's recent matches and 54% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Roda's matches and 57% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Roda and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Roda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Roda 0-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.36 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.52 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against FC Eindhoven attack 1.23 / defence 0.90, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 34% | Draw 25% | FC Eindhoven 41%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 53%, FC Eindhoven 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.57 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Eindhoven win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.51 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.