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Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat Emmen 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat Emmen 1-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.33 xG and Emmen 1.61 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Emmen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Emmen attack 1.13 / defence 0.88, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 31% | Draw 26% | Emmen 43%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 55%, Emmen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Emmen's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.64 PPG, Emmen 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights