Roda 1-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Friday 11 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 4W 3D 3L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Roda are significantly better at Parkstad Limburg Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Emmen arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Roda 3W, Emmen 2W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 3–1 with Roda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus Emmen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 55% | Emmen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.33 xG and Emmen 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.922 / defence 1.109 | Emmen attack 1.129 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.282. Data: 71 Roda games / 71 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 31% | Draw 26% | Emmen 43%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Emmen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Roda 50% | Emmen 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 31% | Draw 26% | Emmen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Roda 1.33 / Emmen 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.922 / def 1.109 | Emmen attack 1.129 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Emmen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Emmen xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Emmen kick off?
Roda vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 April 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Emmen?
Roda 1 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Roda vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Emmen part of?
Roda vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 31% chance of winning, Emmen a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Roda and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Emmen?
Record (5 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 0 | Emmen 2W.
What form are Roda and Emmen in?
Roda (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.92x the league average against Emmen's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (1.13x) against Roda's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
31%
3.21
26%
3.91
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Roda xG
Total xG
2.94
1.61
Emmen xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
6%
15.99
11%
8.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.6 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Roda and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Roda and 1.61 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda come into this having played 73 games, going 33W 21D 19L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.55 PPG from 73 outings (34W 11D 28L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Roda against 1.55 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Roda's home form reads 22W 8D 6L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.64 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.64 points per game from 36 outings (18W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.53 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Emmen in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 33W 21D 19L in their last 73 games (1.64 PPG), while Emmen have gone 34W 11D 28L in their last 73 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Emmen away?
Roda's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.06 PPG; Emmen away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Roda or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Emmen in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Roda
2
Draws
3
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Emmen?
From 9 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Emmen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Emmen 1-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Emmen?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, Emmen 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Roda and 64% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Roda's recent matches and 53% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Roda's matches and 64% of Emmen's.
Do Roda and Emmen tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Emmen in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Roda defy the odds to beat Emmen 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Emmen 1-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.33 xG and Emmen 1.61 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Emmen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.92 / defence 1.11 against Emmen attack 1.13 / defence 0.88, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 31% | Draw 26% | Emmen 43%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 55%, Emmen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Emmen's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.64 PPG, Emmen 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.