Roda vs Dordrecht – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Roda (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Roda face Dordrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host Dordrecht at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 January 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Roda have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 6 wins apiece for Roda, 4 for Dordrecht and 0 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Aug 2026, ended 1–0 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Roda trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Dordrecht trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 61% and Dordrecht 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 51% | Dordrecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.91 xG and Dordrecht 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.879 / defence 0.814 | Dordrecht attack 0.820 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 48 Roda games / 48 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 59% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 19%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Dordrecht 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Roda (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jan 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 59% | Draw 22% | Dordrecht 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Roda 1.91 / Dordrecht 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.879 / def 0.814 | Dordrecht attack 0.820 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Roda (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Dordrecht xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Dordrecht kick off?
Roda vs Dordrecht is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 22 January 2027 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Where is Roda vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Dordrecht part of?
Roda vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 59% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Roda and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Dordrecht?
Record (10 meetings): Roda 6W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 4W.
What form are Roda and Dordrecht in?
Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Roda's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.55
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Roda xG
Total xG
2.88
0.97
Dordrecht xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
3%
35.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Roda and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Roda and 0.97 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 17W 19D 13L from 49 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 21L across 49 games — 1.18 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.43 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 6W 10D 8L from 24 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 6W 8D 10L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.27 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Roda have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 63%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 17W 19D 13L in their last 49 games (1.43 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Dordrecht away?
Roda's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.17 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Roda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
0
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 6, Dordrecht have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Dordrecht 0-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Dordrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 58%, Dordrecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Roda) and 67% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Roda's games and 71% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Roda vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Roda's matches and 67% of Dordrecht's.
Do Roda and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.