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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat Roda 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dordrecht beat Roda 1-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.53 xG and Dordrecht 1.09 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.03 / defence 0.87 against Dordrecht attack 0.86 / defence 0.86, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 47% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 27%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Dordrecht win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, Dordrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Dordrecht's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.41 PPG, Dordrecht 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights