Roda 0-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 52% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Roda host Dordrecht at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 19). Kick-off is Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Roda — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Roda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 2.00 PPG versus Dordrecht's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Roda hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Dordrecht and 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Feb 2024, ended Roda 4–1 Dordrecht — a Roda win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Roda and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Roda trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Dordrecht trading profile (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 55% and Dordrecht 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 53% | Dordrecht 60%). Note also that Dordrecht surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Roda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.74 xG and Dordrecht 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.997 / defence 0.695 | Dordrecht attack 1.057 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.406. Roda have a tight defence (rating 0.695), which is pulling Dordrecht's projected output down. Data: built from Roda's last 56 games and Dordrecht's last 56.
Result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 21%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.91 | Draw 3.76 | Dordrecht 4.77. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Roda 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Roda's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Roda 30% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 19 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Roda 1.74 / Dordrecht 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.997 / def 0.695 | Dordrecht attack 1.057 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Roda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Dordrecht xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Roda vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does Roda vs Dordrecht kick off?
Roda vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 13 December 2024 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Roda 0 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Roda vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Dordrecht part of?
Roda vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 19) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 52% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Roda and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Roda vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Roda's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Roda's last 56 games and Dordrecht's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.76
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Roda xG
Total xG
2.77
1.03
Dordrecht xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
4%
27.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.2 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Roda vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Roda and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Roda and 1.03 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Roda's recent record stands at 29W 18D 11L from 58 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 27W 21D 10L across 58 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Roda on 1.81 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Roda have managed 19W 6D 3L from their last 28 home games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Roda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 11W 10D 7L across their last 28 away games, a 1.54 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.88 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht in 66%.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
Roda (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Roda
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Roda vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are Roda and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 29W 18D 11L in their last 58 games (1.81 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 27W 21D 10L in their last 58 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Dordrecht away?
Roda's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 2.25 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Roda or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 21 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Roda have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Mar 2022, when Roda won Roda 4-0 Dordrecht.
Roda's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Roda
0
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Roda vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Dordrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Roda have won 6, Dordrecht have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 August 2026: Dordrecht 0-1 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Dordrecht?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 42% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 50%, Dordrecht 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Roda and 64% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Roda vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Roda and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Roda's games and 75% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Roda and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Roda's matches and 64% of Dordrecht's.
Do Roda and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Roda's recent matches and 86% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Dordrecht defy the odds to beat Roda 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Roda 0-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.74 xG and Dordrecht 1.03 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.00 / defence 0.69 against Dordrecht attack 1.06 / defence 1.13, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 52% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 21%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Dordrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 53%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Dordrecht's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.81 PPG, Dordrecht 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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