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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

De Graafschap host Cambuur at Stadion De Vijverberg in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadion De Vijverberg, De Graafschap have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Cambuur — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Cambuur away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — De Graafschap at 1.80 PPG versus Cambuur's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 1, Cambuur 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 2–1 with De Graafschap winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

Cambuur in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 64% and Cambuur 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 71% | Cambuur 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.77 xG and Cambuur 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.517 / defence 0.927 | Cambuur attack 1.296 / defence 0.757. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.406. De Graafschap carry an above-average attack strength of 1.517 — their λ of 1.77 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cambuur's defence strength of 0.757 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Cambuur have an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 De Graafschap games / 56 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: De Graafschap 39% | Draw 25% | Cambuur 36%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Cambuur 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: De Graafschap 80% | Cambuur 20%.

The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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