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Poisson rates Roda at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Dordrecht encounter.

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Match Analysis

Roda host Dordrecht at Parkstad Limburg Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Roda — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Roda's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parkstad Limburg Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Roda at 2.00 PPG versus Dordrecht's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Roda: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 1 for Dordrecht, with 0 draws across those contests.

The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Feb 2024, ended 4–1 with Roda winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Roda and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Roda trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Dordrecht trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Roda 55% and Dordrecht 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 53% | Dordrecht 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.74 xG and Dordrecht 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.997 / defence 0.695 | Dordrecht attack 1.057 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.406. Roda's defence rating of 0.695 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Roda games / 56 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 27% | Dordrecht 21%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Dordrecht 4.76. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Roda 30% | Dordrecht 70%.

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