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Dominant Roda run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Den Bosch.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat Den Bosch 6-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.42 xG and Den Bosch 1.67 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Roda beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.80 / defence 1.14 against Den Bosch attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 33% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 43%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 56%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Den Bosch's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.40 PPG, Den Bosch 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights