🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 11 as Roda welcome Den Bosch to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Roda have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season.

Den Bosch — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Den Bosch away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Roda) versus 1.70 (Den Bosch). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Roda register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Den Bosch in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Roda, 2 for Den Bosch and 3 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Roda in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).

Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 58% versus Den Bosch 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 56% | Den Bosch 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.42 xG and Den Bosch 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.801 / defence 1.136 | Den Bosch attack 1.045 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.403. Data: 48 Roda games / 48 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Roda 33% | Draw 24% | Den Bosch 43%. Fair-value odds: Roda 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Den Bosch 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | Den Bosch 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights