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Prediction vindicated as Cambuur edge out Roda 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cambuur beat Roda 0-1 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 0.97 xG and Cambuur 1.38 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Roda fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.89 / defence 0.77 against Cambuur attack 1.32 / defence 0.70, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 25% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 45%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 51%, Cambuur 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cambuur's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Roda 1.73 PPG, Cambuur 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights