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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Roda cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Almere City FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Roda beat Almere City FC 2-0 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 2.17 xG and Almere City FC 1.36 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Almere City FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Almere City FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Roda 56% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 24%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 58%, Almere City FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Roda's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Almere City FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Almere City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights