🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Roda at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Almere City FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 12 as Roda welcome Almere City FC to Parkstad Limburg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Monday 20 October 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season.

Almere City FC — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Almere City FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Roda carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Roda have won 1, Almere City FC 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Almere City FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Roda trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Almere City FC trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 56% versus Almere City FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 58% | Almere City FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.17 xG and Almere City FC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 1.080 / defence 1.019 | Almere City FC attack 0.968 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.825 / away 1.379. Data: 49 Roda games / 11 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Roda 56% | Draw 20% | Almere City FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.79 | Draw 5.00 | Almere City FC 4.17. The model has a clear lean to Roda (56%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Almere City FC lead the H2H ledger, but Roda carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.

Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Almere City FC 60% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights