PEC Zwolle 4-0 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 84% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAC³PARK Stadion plays host to PEC Zwolle versus Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Friday 28 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PEC Zwolle have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
PEC Zwolle at MAC³PARK Stadion this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at MAC³PARK Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — PEC Zwolle are significantly better at MAC³PARK Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in PEC Zwolle's favour (1.90 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: PEC Zwolle 0W, Dordrecht 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
PEC Zwolle — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PEC Zwolle 47% versus Dordrecht 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PEC Zwolle 48% | Dordrecht 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PEC Zwolle 3.23 xG and Dordrecht 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PEC Zwolle attack 1.534 / defence 0.760 | Dordrecht attack 0.813 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.298. PEC Zwolle carry an above-average attack strength of 1.534 — their λ of 3.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dordrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing PEC Zwolle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. PEC Zwolle's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 34 PEC Zwolle games / 72 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 84% | Draw 10% | Dordrecht 6%. Fair-value odds: PEC Zwolle 1.19 | Draw 10.00 | Dordrecht 16.67. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (84%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 4.03. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.03 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PEC Zwolle at 84% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: PEC Zwolle 40% | Dordrecht 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: MAC³PARK Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PEC Zwolle 84% | Draw 10% | Dordrecht 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 53% | xG PEC Zwolle 3.23 / Dordrecht 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: PEC Zwolle attack 1.534 / def 0.760 | Dordrecht attack 0.813 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (84%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.23
PEC Zwolle xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Dordrecht xG
53%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht kick off?
PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 April 2023 at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What was the final score in PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht?
PEC Zwolle 4 - 0 Dordrecht.
Where is PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at MAC³PARK Stadion.
What competition is PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht part of?
PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives PEC Zwolle a 84% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 6% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PEC Zwolle and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Dordrecht?
Record (1 meetings): PEC Zwolle 0W | Draws 0 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are PEC Zwolle and Dordrecht in?
PEC Zwolle (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
PEC Zwolle's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Dordrecht's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.23. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.81x) against PEC Zwolle's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 34/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.2%), 4-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
84%
1.19
10%
9.66
6%
17.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.23
PEC Zwolle xG
Total xG
4.03
0.80
Dordrecht xG
1.19
84%
Home win
9.66
10%
Draw
17.12
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
4%
25.33
Win to Nil
38%
2.66
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.2 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are PEC Zwolle and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 3.23 expected goals for PEC Zwolle and 0.80 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 4.03.
How confident is the prediction model for PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 84%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PEC Zwolle's recent record stands at 31W 10D 27L from 68 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 37L across 68 games — 0.99 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours PEC Zwolle by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PEC Zwolle have managed 16W 7D 11L from 34 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 6W 6D 22L across 34 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PEC Zwolle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PEC Zwolle are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.24 scored and 1.87 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PEC Zwolle
Current Season
Dordrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PEC Zwolle and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
PEC Zwolle have gone 31W 10D 27L in their last 68 games (1.51 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 18W 13D 37L in their last 68 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PEC Zwolle at home or Dordrecht away?
PEC Zwolle's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PEC Zwolle at home: 1.62 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
PEC Zwolle
0
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PEC Zwolle and Dordrecht?
From 2 meetings on record, PEC Zwolle have won 1, Dordrecht have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PEC Zwolle and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2023, when PEC Zwolle 4-0 Dordrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PEC Zwolle 56%, Dordrecht 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PEC Zwolle) and 71% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PEC Zwolle home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PEC Zwolle play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of PEC Zwolle's games and 71% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is PEC Zwolle vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of PEC Zwolle's matches and 71% of Dordrecht's.
Do PEC Zwolle and Dordrecht tend to score early?
PEC Zwolle have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PEC Zwolle run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PEC Zwolle beat Dordrecht 4-0 at MAC³PARK Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PEC Zwolle 3.23 xG and Dordrecht 0.80 xG, a combined 4.03. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Dordrecht landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PEC Zwolle attack 1.53 / defence 0.76 against Dordrecht attack 0.81 / defence 1.21, drawn from 34/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PEC Zwolle 84% | Draw 10% | Dordrecht 6%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 84%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PEC Zwolle 48%, Dordrecht 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Dordrecht's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PEC Zwolle arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.99. Form held, and they took the win. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.