FC OSS 0-5 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Almere City FC (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC OSS face Almere City FC.

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Analysis

Almere City FC make the trip to Frans Heesen Stadion to face FC OSS in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Friday 28 April 2023 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

FC OSS (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC OSS at Frans Heesen Stadion this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Almere City FC have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Almere City FC away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Almere City FC are 1.00 PPG clear of FC OSS in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head ledger leans to Almere City FC, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 0–3 with Almere City FC winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Almere City FC have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading & In-Play

FC OSS — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).

Almere City FC — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 58% versus Almere City FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 67% | Almere City FC 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.10 xG and Almere City FC 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.007 / defence 1.439 | Almere City FC attack 1.098 / defence 0.627. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.298. Almere City FC's defence strength of 0.627 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 72 FC OSS games / 72 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: FC OSS 20% | Draw 21% | Almere City FC 59%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 5.00 | Draw 4.76 | Almere City FC 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Almere City FC (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Almere City FC at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 70% | Almere City FC 30%.

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