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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over MVV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat MVV 1-3 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.56 xG and Waalwijk 2.03 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 2.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.03 / defence 1.22 against Waalwijk attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 30% | Draw 21% | Waalwijk 49%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 61%, Waalwijk 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Waalwijk's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.06 PPG, Waalwijk 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waalwijk win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights