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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant MVV run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Telstar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

MVV beat Telstar 5-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.55 xG and Telstar 1.19 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Telstar attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 44% | Draw 29% | Telstar 27%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 65%, Telstar 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Telstar's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.33 PPG, Telstar 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm. Telstar (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights