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Stalemate at MVV's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 18, as MVV and Roda drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.75 xG and Roda 1.65 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. MVV fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Roda landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.03 / defence 1.20 against Roda attack 0.94 / defence 0.99, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 41% | Draw 23% | Roda 37%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 56%, Roda 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Roda's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.00 PPG, Roda 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights