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Prediction vindicated as MVV edge out Roda 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

MVV beat Roda 3-2 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.15 xG and Roda 1.23 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.33 / defence 0.89 against Roda attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 58% | Draw 21% | Roda 21%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 66%, Roda 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Roda's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.34 PPG, Roda 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights