🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

MVV and Jong Utrecht share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

MVV and Jong Utrecht finished level at 2-2 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.67 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.57 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.92 / defence 1.02 against Jong Utrecht attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 40% | Draw 24% | Jong Utrecht 36%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 58%, Jong Utrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.08 PPG, Jong Utrecht 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights