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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant MVV run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Jong Utrecht.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

MVV beat Jong Utrecht 5-0 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.53 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.96 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong Utrecht landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.05 / defence 1.11 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.70 / defence 1.44, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 71% | Draw 17% | Jong Utrecht 12%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 71%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 64%, Jong Utrecht 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Jong Utrecht's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.64. Form held, and they took the win. MVV (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights