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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as MVV edge out Jong PSV U21 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

MVV beat Jong PSV U21 2-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.15 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.75 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.15 / defence 1.36, drawn from 63/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 46% | Draw 23% | Jong PSV U21 31%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 60%, Jong PSV U21 77%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Jong PSV U21's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.08 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights