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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over MVV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat MVV 1-3 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.95 xG and Jong AZ 1.78 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. MVV fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jong AZ outscored their 1.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.09 / defence 1.13 against Jong AZ attack 1.07 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 43% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 36%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 57%, Jong AZ 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Jong AZ's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.04 PPG, Jong AZ 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights