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Shock result as Jong AZ defy the odds to beat MVV 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jong AZ beat MVV 0-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.26 xG and Jong AZ 1.58 xG, a combined 3.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.28 / defence 1.05 against Jong AZ attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 53% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 27%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 64%, Jong AZ 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Jong AZ's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.33 PPG, Jong AZ 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights