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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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MVV cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Eindhoven.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

MVV beat FC Eindhoven 3-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.32 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.96 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. MVV beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.67 / defence 0.97, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it MVV 45% | Draw 28% | FC Eindhoven 27%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 51%, FC Eindhoven 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

MVV's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

FC Eindhoven's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — MVV 1.02 PPG, FC Eindhoven 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights